The Digital Financier Update (DFIN.COM Update) provides a weekly commentary on important stories with significant financial, and or Internet implications. The purpose is to provide finance professionals and there staff with a timely brief synopses of recent and historic news events that best illustrates the changing digital economy. The stories will eventually impact all of us. Many of our stories may have received very little popular press coverage. The weekly summary is e-mailed at no cost to participating subscribers for distribution to staff and co-workers.
This publication is designed to be a quick read and the archive is a good resource for financial history.
The most common sources for the DFIN.COM Update include UP, AP, Fast Company, Business Week,The Economist, Forbes, Wired, Federal Reserve Bank Publications. The Wall Street Journal Interactive, MSNBC, L.A. Times, San Jose Mercury News.
Week of March 28, 1999
Harkening back to years gone by, OPEC has successfully (in the short run) cut production and pushed up the cost of oil. With the exception of gas stations will the current prosperity in the USA allow producers to pass through the cost increase without impacting demand? We do not believe so. With the exception of the oil companies, we expect the increase to negatively impact corporate earnings and weaken demand. In this regard Dr. Ed Yardeni (http://www.yardeni.com) in his typical wit just came out with an insightful observation of the current stock market that we want to share with our readers.
Remember the Mechanical Bull ride so popular in some bars during the late 1980s? It was almost impossible to keep from falling off the motorized beast. Today's Great Bull Market is doing the same to more and more stocks. At the end of March, 60% of the stocks in the S&P 500 sold below their year-ago price, the worst performance since 1994. Fewer and fewer stocks are driving the stock market averages into record high territory. There are three possibilities: 1) This is a bearish indicator. 2) It doesn't matter. If you are in the right stocks, like Yahoo and AOL, who cares about the losers? 3) The bull market will soon broaden, so small- and mid-cap stocks are the way to go. Take your choice. I pick Door #2 for now through a summer rally that could take the Dow to 11,000. During the late summer and early fall, I believe that the narrowness of the rally and the extreme overvaluation of the Nifty Fifty--or is it the Nifty Five?--will trigger a significant sell off (-30%). My bearish scenario assumes that investors will become concerned about Y2K, and will be disappointed by earnings. I have to concede that so far no one seems concerned at all about Y2K. There are far more people considering leaving their jobs so they can trade stocks on their home computer than survivalists preparing for Y2K calamity.
This is consistent with our expectations although we give a significant probability to a flat market as an alternative to a 30% collapse. Does the fact that America Online is valued greater than Walt Disney, Viacom and CBS combined give us concern? Yes it does, take a look at the details in the article. Subsequently, on April 6, 1999 the AOL market value exceeds that of IBM. AOL is a good company but will history prove that it is valued appropriately? Given the choice, we will take IBM over AOL. During this week we also report that woman have gained parity with men on the Internet and Russia will no longer cooperate with the US on Y2K because of the war in Kosovo. . . . .Until Next Week.
Women even the score in Net usage Women now make up as much of the Web population as men. By Louis Trager, Inter@ctive Week, March 29, 1999 "It's finally happened. The virtual boys' club is dead. Half of U.S. adult Internet users are women. "
"The ratio hit 50-50 for the first time in January, according to Media Metrix online research. That contrasts with an 82 percent to 18 percent disparity in favor of males just three years earlier. "
""It's a milestone not just for women but for the Internet," said Fran Maier, Women.com's senior vice president of marketing and business development. "It's delivering what more traditional media deliver. It's being embraced. It's now part of the mainstream." "
"The trend is good news not only for explicitly women-oriented sites such as iVillage and Women.com, but for all content providers and merchants that address the tendency of women Web surfers who use the Internet instrumentally, as a tool in their everyday lives, in contrast to men's tendency toward entertainment and exploration, Maier said. "
"Wall Street and big business are taking notice. iVillage (Nasdaq:IVIL) had a spectacularly successful initial public offering this month. Microsoft's (Nasdaq:MSFT) MSN portal site is creating a partnership with Women's Consumer Network to target women. "
Why AOL is world's most valuable media company, April 2, 1999, BY RICHARD WATERS, The Financial Times. NEW YORK "America Online is now worth more than Walt Disney, Viacom and CBS combined, according to investors who have driven the company's stock market value up by $62 billion in just four weeks. "
"The latest bout of enthusiasm for AOL has lifted its market capitalization to about $140 billion, compared with the $66 billion value placed on Walt Disney, the $35 billion of Viacom and the $30 billion of CBS. A stock market reassessment of Time Warner over the past six months has driven that company's value up by 75 percent, to $87 billion. "
"With 16 million subscribers and revenues that are expected to top $4 billion this year, AOL is one of the few pure online companies to produce a profit, earning $134 million last year. However, its earnings are dwarfed by the combined revenues of $45 billion and earnings of $2.5 billion that Disney, Viacom and CBS are expected to produce this year."
AT&T signs landmark China telecom accord, March 31, 1999, SHANGHAI, China (Reuters) "AT&T signed Wednesday a landmark accord to offer Internet-based telephone services in Shanghai in a deal that chips away at China's barriers to foreign telecommunications companies.
AT&T signed a framework agreement to offer Internet protocol (IP) services in Shanghai's Pudong development zone in a venture with two Chinese partners, "
"``This agreement will enable for the first time a foreign partner to provide telecom services in China,'' the U.S. Department of Commerce said in a statement. "
"Chinese officials described it as an experiment in allowing foreign investment in previously banned network operation.
The accord comes as China pushes to enter the World Trade Organization (WTO), and opening its market to foreign investors has been a key objective of the United States and other developed countries. "
03/26/99 Russia Won't Cooperate on Y2K Bug Russia Won't Cooperate on Y2K Bug By CHRIS ALLBRITTON - AP Cyberspace Writer- NEW YORK AP- "In another show of protest over the fighting in Kosovo, Russia's Defense Ministry said Friday it will stop cooperating with the United States on the Y2K computer problem. "
"A ministry spokesman made the announcement to a government committee that is tackling the problem, the Interfax news agency said. In Washington, Sen. Robert F. Bennett, chairman of the Senate Special Committee on the Year 2000 Technology Problem, urged Russia to reconsider. ``I think it's very shortsighted and potentially dangerous,'' he said. "
"'' Western defense officials have been working with Russia on upgrading its computers for fear that the cash-starved country has not done enough to tackle the millennium bug. Some fear that faulty computers could trigger false alarms on Russia's nuclear early warning systems. Accidental launches of nuclear missiles are highly unlikely, experts in both countries said, but they urged extra precautions until the computer problem is fixed. ``The potential for nuclear accident is very small, but the thing we're finding here is that Y2K problems can kick off human errors,'' Bennett said. ``The best way to make sure some human doesn't make a mistake because of Y2K is mutual and open dialogue.'' As part of the effort, the two countries had planned to station experts in each other's nuclear facilities in the months before and after Jan. 1, 2000. The program was to be mostly U.S.-funded. "
The U.S. unemployment rate dropped to its lowest level in nearly three decades in March, but the roaring economy showed signs of slowing down as new jobs grew at an anemic pace, the Labor Department said Friday, April 2, MSNBS, and Reuters - " The historic low unemployment figures "show that this is the greatest economy in the world. Its a fabulous testimony to the private enterprise entrepreneurs who have been driving this for many years," American Skandia economist Larry Kudlow told CNBC Friday.
"THE JOBLESS rate slid to 4.2 percent in March from 4.4 percent in February. The March rate was the lowest since a matching 4.2 percent rate in February 1970. But the number of workers on U.S. payrolls grew last month by a slight 46,000, the weakest showing since a blizzard in January 1996 caused payrolls to drop by 48,000. "
Week of March 21, 1999In an effort to learn a little more about the NATO war in Kosovo, DFIN.COM added a page of links to Balkan related sites. Most sites include English components. Caution- Graphic photos are posted. It appears that the Albanians have a better PR machine than the Serbians.
As promised last week we will begin our discussion of the Internets effect on old-line atom based business. We consider the Internet to be nothing less than a once in history opportunity. As a communication, marketing and distribution tool, the Internet is a true global marketplace. Physical location will no longer be a serious impediment to product distribution and face to face service will find a small niche in this growing future economy. The Internet will materially effect all business. We are fortunate to have found a story on the revitalization of Visa with a focus on the Internet opportunities, Visa is biting the bullet and will be changing executive staff and implementing new vigor and accountability in order to meet the challenge. There are many companies that have entered the Internet but have not capitalized upon the early adopter opportunity. Why? We believe that it is a resistance and /or lack of understanding of the new marketing paradigm. Many businesses dont appreciate the structural effects that must be implemented in order to successfully transition to the Internet. As owners of the stock, we will review the Spiegel Internet activities next week.
In this weekly issue, we have included articles on the explosion in e-commerce and the success of "Affiliate" marketing techniques as championed by Amazon.com.
CEO Aims to Whip Visa Into Shape for Web War, American Banker, By Jeffrey Kutler, March 26, 1999 Visa is a leader in addressing the industry changes that are necessitated by the Internet. Can Visa expand its market share?
"Visa U.S.A. President Carl F. Pascarella is digging in his heels and shaking the ground underneath his organization like never before."
"He says he is blasting away at bureaucracy, moving quickly to streamline and retool the company before electronic commerce and other emerging challenges pass it by."
"Word is out that some in the rank and file are nervous. Visa has acknowledged that the restructuring extends to offering retirement packages to some long-term workers."
""We may not be talking about radical change," he said in an interview last week. But there definitely will be a "different process.""
""Nothing is sacrosanct," the U.S. chief executive officer said in describing a top-level reassessment of strategy that began in the fall. At a company meeting two weeks ago, he said, "I told my people that from today on, Visa is never going to be like what it was in the past."
"We can't have handoffs and bureaucracy," Mr. Pascarella said. "Bureaucracy always creeps in," but now there is an emphasis on resisting it. "Our job is to be the best partners that our banks have. The timing for what we are doing is right -- maybe more right than it was in October-November when we started down this road."
"Competition, whether from MasterCard, American Express, or other nonbanks, is not letting up. The Internet "changes everything," as the cliche goes. And then there are the nettlesome matters of a federal antitrust suit against Visa and MasterCard, a second one filed by major retailing companies, and the recent flap with the perennial leader among bank card issuers, Citibank, that resulted in the resignation of two of its executives from Visa's board."
"Five years ago, this was a cakewalk compared to what we have now," Mr. Pascarella said. "We have technology changes, bank consolidation, and regulatory issues all at the same time. And consumers are looking for value and convenience.
"This is a difficult time. We are going through this because we are as strong as we are."
"Mr. Robertson suggested that "the challenge is away from cards," and that is "uncharted territory for the associations," which only complicates management's task."
"They found too much "handing off" and not enough accountability among systems, operations, product development, support, and other functions. "When we finished, we realigned according to lines of business, with market-focused accountability," Mr. Pascarella said."
"Indicating the seriousness of Visa's commitment to the Internet and electronic commerce, the company has 16 people who "do nothing else," Mr. Pascarella said, in a unit headed by Jim Degracia, a senior vice president and former American Express executive. "These folks' only accountability is to see that we win in the e-commerce arena," the CEO said."
"Visa says it is expecting that 10% of a projected $1 trillion of U.S. volume will be on-line by 2003."
"Mr. Pascarella has also cultivated close relationships with some of his Silicon Valley neighbors, whom Visa draws on not only to help promote Internet sales but also to improve business practices. Visa was a "strategic investor" in Yahoo Inc. and Verisign Inc., for example. Mr. Pascarella is friendly with Yahoo co-founder Jerry Yang and sits on the board of BroadVision Inc., a marketing systems company headed by sales automation pioneer Pehong Chen."
""Talking to these people influenced my thinking," Mr. Pascarella said. "It made me ask, Are we nimble enough? Should we be a faster-to-market, more paranoid type of organization? How do we change our culture?
"These guys may not be changing their cultures all the time, but they know how to change their businesses on a dime. We have to have the same type of urgency. We have to be totally and completely market-focused.""
Nikko Securities to set up new Net stock trading firm, Mercury News, March 26, 1999, TOKYO (AP) "Nikko Securities Co., a major Japanese brokerage, said Friday it plans to set up a new company specializing in Internet stock trading, a burgeoning business in Japan. "
"The new firm is to start operations Oct. 1, when stock brokerage commissions in Japan are completely liberalized, a Nikko spokesman said. "
"To ensure the security and reliability of the online system, Nikko will team up with a systems development firm operated by Timothy McCarthy, former president of U.S.-based Charles Schwab Corp., the newspaper said."
"Sony will take a 50 percent stake in a joint venture to be set up with Oki Matsumoto, an adviser at Goldman Sachs and Co., as early as next month, a Sony spokesman said. The joint venture between Sony and Matsumoto is to start in October. "
AT&T sells $8 billion in bonds, Record corporate debt offering to help finance TCI deal, MSNBC, REUTERS, NEW YORK, March 23 Interest rates are low and risk premiums are reasonable. Expect to see more corporate borrowing.
"Telecommunications company AT&T Corp. Tuesday priced an $8 billion three-part global bond offering, the largest U.S. corporate bond issue ever. Demand was heavy for the eagerly awaited issue aimed at financing AT&Ts share buyback program and short-term debt related to its recent $55 billion acquisition of cable company Tele-Communications Inc., "
"INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS bid for several times the amount offered, leading AT&T to boost the size of the issue from $7 billion."
" AT&T issued $2.0 billion in five-year notes yielding 64 basis points over U.S. Treasuries of comparable maturities; $3.0 billion in 10-years at 84 points over, and $3.0 billion in 30-years at 94 points over."
" AT&T has not tapped the debt market since 1995. Some observers worried its return may be inspiring a flock of copycat deals which could flood the market with an excess supply of bonds."
"The deal surpassed last Augusts $6.1 billion bond offering by WorldCom Inc., the previous record holder, according to research firm CommScan LLC."
"The coupon on the five-year tranche was 5 5/8 percent, on the 10-years 6 percent, and on the thirty-year 6 1/2 percent.
AT&T has said it intends to borrow a total of $10 billion in the debt market this year, the full extent of its recent shelf registration with the Securities and Exchange Commission."
"In many industries, he says, signing bonuses now are "probably the rule rather than the exception.""
"Indeed, at the University of California-Berkeleys Haas School of Business, signing bonuses for MBAs in the Class of 1998 rose more than 16 percent last year to an average of $16,342. Ranging from $3,000 to $35,000, bonuses were accepted by more than two-thirds of all graduates."
| Bonus Bonanza | ||
| At Berkeley's Haas School of Business, MBAs are landing more and larger signing bonuses. Here's a sampling by industry for the Class of 1998. | ||
| Industry | Ave. Salary | Ave. Signing Bonus |
| Consulting | $84,400 | $20,300 |
| Consumer products | $72,000 | $15,200 |
| Commercial banking | $70,000 | $17,500 |
| Education/Govt./Non-profit | $52,000 | $0 |
| High technology | $74,000 | $11,000 |
| Internet/Computer systs | $74,900 | $ 5,000 |
| Investment banking | $72,200 | $18,900 |
| Real estate/Construction | $76,300 | $10,000 |
| Software | $77,000 | $14,000 |
| Telecommunications | $68,800 | $10,400 |
| SOURCE: Haas School of Business | ||
"But more recently, the up-front rewards have been extended to the more conservative wings of banks. Trust officers, for instance, have become such hot commodities in South Florida during the past year that signing bonuses for them are becoming commonplace, says Steven Sadaka, president of Steven Douglas Associates in Weston, Fla. Sadaka just placed a trust officer at a superregional bank; the deal: a $100,000 salary and a $25,000 signing bonus."
E-commerce report: Affiliate referrals generate big profits, Mercury News, March 21, 1999, New York Times - This is an excellent business model that can be applied to the financial world.
"If 1998 was the Year of the Portal in electronic commerce, 1999 may be the Year of the Affiliate, as Web merchants realize that one way to balance the books is to recruit other sites to help sell their goods. "
"The partnerships range from deals between companies with established brands to arrangements that retailers make with individuals who have built personal home pages."
"The return is phenomenal,'' said Julie Wainwright, who until recently was chief executive of Reel.com, a video seller. The Reel.com affiliate program was so successful, she said, that it ``generated more revenue than any of our portal deals.'' Ms. Wainwright left Reel.com last month to become chief executive of Pets.com, an online peddler of pet supplies, where she intends to develop an affiliate-referral network. "
"The Internet bookseller Amazon.com is widely credited with pioneering the affiliate model. The company began its ``associate'' program in 1996, offering to pay Web sites that refer customers to Amazon a percentage of any resulting sale.
Amazon's legion of affiliates now numbers 230,000 -- a figure that attests to Amazon's vaunted marketing prowess, of course, but also to the considerable buzz that surrounds affiliate programs. The music seller CDNow has the second-largest affiliate program on the Web, with 207,000 members, while other large retailers' programs are growing at a brisk pace. "
"Why the buzz? The biggest draw of affiliate programs is that merchants do not have to spend marketing dollars to acquire a customer until a purchase is actually made. "
"According to industry executives, top-tier Internet retailers currently spend between $20 and $40 to acquire a new customer -- an exorbitant amount compared with off-line retailers, and primarily a result of the high cost of advertising on Web portals like Yahoo and Lycos to develop brand name awareness. Often, merchants must then spend time working with the portals to find the best approach to delivering customers. "
"``With affiliates, you pay for performance,'' Ms. Wainwright of Pets.com said. ``You don't pay upfront and then work to get performance.'' "
"The best proof of the increasing popularity of these programs is the fact that merchants are competing against each other to attract affiliates, said James McQuivey, an electronic commerce analyst with Forrester Research, a consulting group.
For the last two years, the bounty paid by merchants has grown steadily, he said, ``from 8, to 10, to 12, now as high as 20 percent.'' For some high-margin goods like toys, in fact, bounties can reach as much as 25 percent. "
"While some companies, including Sports Superstore or Amazon.com, run their affiliate programs in-house, others have chosen to use third-party services like Linkshare and Be Free to manage the relationships. These so-called affiliate networks provide services like sending small monthly checks to thousands of affiliates; policing affiliates' sites for possibly offensive material and dealing with the technical challenges that inevitably arise with such programs. "
US online users surf Internet six hours a week-poll, Mercury News, March 23, 1999, WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The average online computer user in the United States spends six hours a week surfing the Internet, a new poll released Tuesday said.
"Almost two-thirds, 63 percent, of online users send or receive e-mail ``often,'' a 10 percentage point increase from September 1998, according to the poll which surveyed 2,015 adults over the telephone during two weeks in February. The next most popular activity, a full 24 percentage points behind, was conducting research for work or school. "
"Online shopping has surged in the last five months, with 31 percent of online users taking part, an increase from 22 percent in September, the poll said. Books, which 38 percent of online shoppers bought, were the most popular item, 20 percentage points ahead of second place software. "
"Sixty-two percent of those surveyed used a computer an average of 15 hours per week. The 30-39 year-old age group led the pack, using computers an average of 21 hours per week, including nine Internet hours, the poll said.
The poll has an error margin of plus or minus three percentage points. "
Internet moving toward diversity, Mercury News, March 23, 1999, BY OMAR L. GALLAGA, Austin American-Statesman This is very important so that we dont create a bigger gap between the "have and have nots".
"The Internet's ability to turn people into voices without faces makes it hard to see that the Net is becoming more diverse.
According to a new study by Forrester Research Inc., minorities are getting onto the Internet at an enormously increasing rate. "
"The company found that online penetration is heaviest among Asian Americans with 64 percent. For African American and Hispanic American households, the news is in the growth.
African American access to the Internet -- whether it be at home, school or work -- will rise 42 percent this year. That means 40 percent of African American households will be online. "
"A 20 percent increase for Hispanic Americans this year will mean 43 percent will be online. "
"That is compared to an average of 44 percent of households online next year for all groups. "
"She said the survey found Asian Americans and African Americans had a high rate of technology optimism, even higher than Anglo Americans, many of whom have had the Internet available to them more readily because of income. "
"Despite the increasing numbers of minorities on the Web, Forrester says a technological gap -- one that separates those who can afford the cost of Net access and those who can't -- still exists. But after 2003, the company predicts that gap will begin to close as lower-income groups find ways of using the Internet and the Net itself becomes ubiquitous. "
"The Web, which started off on the promise of becoming a global community, has become heavily English-based and has generally lacked a true mix of cultural viewpoints. "
"And for the people who use the Internet, the near-limitless freedom of communication and the economic opportunities the Internet has opened up may become the ultimate tools for empowerment. "
"The Internet, for all its hype, has not yet become a tool for equality. But when people of any ethnic background, any income and social strata can easily buy and sell online, find employment on the Web and communicate globally though the Internet, another step toward equality will be taken. "
Week of March 14, 1999
The World is fighting deflation; money supply has been expanded aggressively by governments around the world (fortunately) and borrowing rates are at or near record lows. The USA is a major component of the world demand curve, but for how long? Does the growing balance of trade deficit cause concern in Washington? As evidenced by the steel industry, will protectionist policies creep into US policy when a recession begins in this country? This must be protected against.
We have concern with government implementation of "Beggar-Thy-Neighbor" policies as a solution to weakness in local demand and growing imports in countries throughout the world. Maybe if we all focus on this threat early it wont materialize. Do any readers have comments or papers on this subject that you would like published in DFIN.COM? Send and e-mail.
The DOW has broken 10,000 but we do not have great expectations for 15,000 in the next few years. We expect to see 7,000 before 15,000, although our probability gives a high priority to flatness to the US stock market over the next few years. This is not to say that some companies will do very well as others weaken. Next week we will discuss the effect of the Internet on business.
US trade deficit seen widening to $15 bln in Jan, By Isabelle Clary, NEW YORK, March 16 (Reuters) - A record negative trade gap in January 1999 of approximately $15 Billion causes concern for the implementation of protectionist policies by US politicians. The strong US economy coupled with weak world economy leads one to expect this imbalance to continue.
"the all-time high $16.79-billion shortfall was reported in August 1998. "
"``We saw some increase in the price of oil during January, but non-oil imports will be on the weak side,'' Moran said, referring to crude oil prices that climbed above $10 per barrel in January versus $9.43 a barrel in December.
The drop in energy prices was the main bright spot for the U.S. trade balance last year as the oil bill fell to $3.23 billion in December from $4.81 billion in January 1998. "
There is a "long-established trend of America running the bulk of its deficit with the Far East economies it relies upon for high-tech consumer products or cheap basic goods. This has helped most of these economies survive the financial turmoil that engulfed them since the Thai banking crisis of July 1997."
Sweeping Away Europe's Cronyism (int'l edition), Business Week, March 29, 1999 Editorial - The 20 member executive leadership was forced to resign from the EU. The euro weakened after the report. This can only be positive.
"When Edith Cresson gave a lucrative job supervising AIDS research to her dentist, she saw nothing wrong with it. ''It's normal to work with your friends,'' she said. European parliamentarians didn't find it normal, however. They called for an independent investigation. When the investigation panel revealed widespread mismanagement of funds in the European Union's $100 billion annual budget, all 20 member of the EU's executive leadership, including Cresson, were forced to resign."
"New demands for transparency and accountability are eroding Europe's old tolerance for corrupt backroom deals and cronyism. Voters and investors alike are calling for an end to the status quo and demanding clear-cut results. "
"Investors won't tolerate the status quo, either. Executives can no longer hide from the market, and the resulting drive for efficiency doesn't allow widespread use of wasteful sinecures."
"The entrenched forces of the status quo won't go quietly, however. In the wake of the surprise hostile takeover bid that Banque Nationale de Paris made for rivals Paribas and Societe Generale, the French government issued a warning that it would veto the deal if there were any substantial layoffs of employees."
"The pressure for change is rooted in many of the EU's own policies. Brussels has pushed for deregulation and privatization of old state monopolies. It promoted the single currency, the euro. Voters, who have to compete to make a living on this newly freed playing field, no longer will tolerate old-style backscratching and favoritism."
BBB to help guard privacy on Internet, BY STEPHEN BUEL
Mercury News Staff Writer, March 17, 1999, in the San Jose Mercury News - We have previously commented on the European Internet privacy issues. The Better Business Bureau may provide a solution.
"The nation's best-known service for resolving disputes between consumers and businesses is joining the movement to police privacy online, a move that could help head off European sanctions against U.S. companies. "
"BBBOnline, the Internet arm of the 86-year-old Better Business Bureau, is launching a privacy seal designed to help consumers easily identify Web sites and online merchants that safeguard their credit, medical and other personal records. "
"U.S. negotiators also face a June 21 deadline for agreement with the European Union on standards for protecting personal data. " "Failure to resolve the issue will expose U.S. companies to a new European law prohibiting the transmission of such data to any country that fails to devise an acceptable standard -- sanctions that could be devastating to U.S. Internet firms. "
"U.S. Undersecretary for International Trade David Aaron, who was briefed by the non-profit Better Business Bureau as it developed its new program, said the new safeguards could help persuade European Union officials to put their faith in the industry-led approach favored by the United States.
The program will include on-site inspections of member companies and a dispute-resolution process that will respond to consumer privacy complaints about participating -- and even non-participating -- Web sites, bureau officials said."
"``The dispute settlement and the monitoring is a big part of what they like about it,'' Aaron, the chief U.S. negotiator, said of the program. But resistance to self-regulation remains strong in some countries, he added. ``They tend to view industry self-governance as the fox guarding the chicken coop.'' "
"In many ways, the bureau's program resembles an existing one from Truste, a Palo Alto non-profit agency whose online privacy seals are displayed by about 500 major Web sites. But a bureau spokeswoman said the visibility of the bureau's brand name, coupled with the rigor of its approach, represents a major step forward for online privacy. "
Companies wishing to join the program, or consumers wishing to file a complaint with a Web site, can obtain information at www.bbbonline.org
Reserve Battles Seen Ended by Regulators' Deal, By Jaret Seiberg, March 11, 1999 WASHINGTON One of Benjamin Grahams rules was to be careful of firms that utilize contingency reserves. Earnings should be adjusted accordingly.
"As part of the agreement, the Securities and Exchange Commission said it would not require a bank to restate earnings, even if it believes the institution has inflated reserves or failed to adequately document the size of the fund.
Instead, the agencies said they would work with banks to improve disclosure and documentation of loan loss reserves. "
"The SEC began cracking down on earnings management last fall. This included delaying SunTrust Banks Inc.'s acquisition of Crestar Financial Corp. until the company agreed to reduce loan loss reserves by $100 million and restate earnings.
The SunTrust case outraged the industry, which charged that it was unfair for the SEC to punish a bank for holding excessive reserves at the same time banking regulators were urging them to bolster reserves."
Regulators issued a joint statement in November vowing to work more closely on loan loss provisioning, but industry officials continued to complain about a lack of coordination.
The new agreement, however, won rave reviews. "This is a very impressive move," said Donna Fisher, director of tax and accounting at the American Bankers Association. "This appears to be a commitment that the SEC and agencies will work together with input from the industry."
Rep. Marge Roukema, chairwoman of the House Banking Committee's financial institutions subcommittee, said the deal should stop the turf wars between the SEC and banking agencies. "The regulated should not be told one thing by one regulator and then told something different by another regulator," the New Jersey Republican said.
Rep. Roukema was one of several lawmakers who had promised to introduce amendments to the financial reform bill to end the controversy over loan loss reserves. She dropped the amendment, however, after regulators announced the deal.
The agreement, which was reached late Wednesday afternoon, also commits the SEC, OCC, Federal Reserve Board, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., and Office of Thrift Supervision to establishing a joint working group on accounting issues. This group will issue guidelines on how banks should make "reasoned assessments of losses" in their portfolios and how they should documents these expected losses, according to the agreement.
They said the group will consult frequently with the industry and urged the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants to develop more specific guidance on loan loss provisioning.
Latest data on housing construction, factories show continued strength, MSNBC and ASSOCIATED PRESS - "THE Federal Reserve reported that output at factories, mines and utilities rose by 0.2 percent in February, led by a jump in the production of appliances and home electronics gear. This was better than had been expected. Many analysts had been looking for output to be unchanged in February just as it had been in January."
"Taken together, the two reports showed that the U.S. economy, which this month celebrates its eighth year of expansion, longest in peacetime history, is not showing its age. Indeed, many economists have been busy revising their forecasts up for the year based on strong growth and low unemployment in the first two months of 1999."
"Overall, housing construction dipped a slight 0.6 percent in February as the rise in single-family housing starts was offset by a 6.3 percent drop in construction of apartments.
But the 1.80 million annual rate for home and apartment construction was down only slightly from Januarys 12-year high of 1.81 million units."
Wow! Forbes runs again but he'll use Net, BY DAN GILLMOR, Mercury News Technology Columnist March 15, 1999 He gets it! This is a first.
"Forbes has more than a clue about technology's importance, but the Internet announcement is mostly a publicity stunt. It's having the intended effect, too: press coverage. That the media are falling for it reflects as much on our limited imaginations as the political candidate's to-be-expected shamelessness. "
"I'm more impressed by Forbes' Net notions for another reason. As well as any candidate in the race, and better than many, he grasps the potential of cyberspace and the information revolution. That counts for something.
ET TU, MR. GORE? Speaking of shameless hype from someone who knows better, Vice President Al Gore dove overboard last week when he told an interviewer, ``During my service in the United States Congress, I took the initiative in creating the Internet.'' "
Week of March 7, 1999
The Stock Market Parlor Game or Freedom to Fail is a self fulfilling prophesy? As we rapidly approach Dow 10,000 it reminds me of the mid 1970's when Silver was being cornered by the Hunt brothers and gold was at $1000 per ounce. At that time I saw a news story in Los Angeles in which a homeless "Bag Lady" was buy in Silver coins. The feeling is the same today. There are indications that everybody feels obligated to invest in the stock market, especially in mutual funds. Human nature is slow to change and this is one reason for excesses. I recently saw an advertisement for a discount brokerage in which a group of young mothers gathered around a computer with their children. One mother was trading stocks and showing friends how easy and inexpensive it was. She of course made a nice profit in her trade. Another example of newcomers to the market is the growth in Black Household investment in the US Stock Market. The chart below shows a growth of more than 300% in the period between 1995 - 1997.
Business Week Online March 22 IssueTABLE: Black Household Investment
In other news, the French government continues to support other nations Internet business. Business Week reported that In late February a French Internet server company with 40,000 clients was fined about $70,000 for hosting a company that posted a nude photograph of a famous French model, Estelle Hallyday. The company (server) had nothing to do with the posting and had to close business. In the USA Vice President Gore is accepting credit for creating the Internet and 24 hour trading is close to implementation. The brokerage industry has some exciting changes in the works.
Did Gore father the Internet? His claim raises issue of Nets paternity and maternity, By Miguel Llanos, MSNBC , The Associated Press contributed, March 12 - Vint Cerf and Bob Kahn may take exception to this. Lets give credit where credit is due.
"THE NETS PATERNITY became an issue when Gore, interviewed Tuesday on CNN, touted his vision to lead America. Among other things he said: During my service in the United States Congress, I took the initiative in creating the Internet. I took the initiative in moving forward a whole range of initiatives that have proven to be important to our countrys economic growth and environmental protection, improvements in our educational system.
And on his Web site the vice president, while laying claim to having coined the term information superhighway doesnt go that far on the Net itself. Vice President Gore is a nationally recognized leader on technology, saying he worked to bring about what has become the Internet. For instance in 1991, he was the author of the High Performance Computing and Communications Act.
"The Q&A section, at www.mci.com/cerfsup/cerfqa.shtml, also lists many of those who helped create and build the Net. Interestingly, Al Gores name is nowhere to be found."
"Leading the charge are Michael Satow and Eugene Choe, a pair of former SEC lawyers who've spent the past two years building a New York-based investment firm called Eclipse Trading. Eclipse has developed Indivex, a Web-based trading platform that electronically matches and executes trades placed when the stock market is closed."
"Earlier this month, Eclipse announced its first two customers: Discover Brokerage Direct, a subsidiary of Morgan Stanley Dean Witter, and New York-based Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities. Eclipse plans to launch Indivex this summer."
"Eclipse plans to roll out the new service slowly. Initially, Indivex will be open for just two or three hours, beginning at 6 p.m. or 7 p.m. Eastern time, with trading limited to roughly 200 Nasdaq- and NYSE-listed issues. As liquidity grows, so will the stocks available for trade and the hours of operation. The long-term plan: trade around the clock."
"Wit Capital, the New York-based online investment bank, has had a similar system under development for years. With plans to launch the network later this year, Wit recently hired former National Discount Brokers CEO Everett Lang to head up its Digital Trading Facility. So far, Wit hasn't announced any customers for the network."
"Meanwhile, Datek Online's Island ECN, a system that electronically executes trades during the day, is quietly extending its hours; it plans to operate 24 hours a day by summer. Archipelago, a smaller ECN that has received national attention following a combined $50 million investment from Goldman Sachs and E-Trade, already executes trades until midnight and opens slightly earlier than Nasdaq and the NYSE."
"With its relationship with E-Trade, Archipelago has a useful advantage. Wit Capital, meanwhile, has been wooing online brokerages with IPO-share allocations from deals it helps to underwrite. Eclipse is starting without existing broker relationships and is relying instead on its technology and the regulatory background of the founders as its chief selling points."
GM Launches Web Site To Sell Autos, 03/10/99 DETROIT (AP) - This is an important event in the e-tail world. What mark-up will dealers have on direct purchases?
"You can't kick the tires, but you can take a virtual tour of a General Motors Corp. showroom on the automaker's new Web site, which was launched Wednesday. Prospective buyers can go on line to get details about every GM make and model, independent third party competitive comparisons and access to the new vehicle inventories of nearly 6,000 dealerships. Consumers also can apply online for financing, send electronic messages to a dealer to get the best purchase price on the exact vehicle they want, and schedule a test drive. GM introduced its GM BuyPower service in October 1997 in California, Oregon, Washington and Idaho and expanded it to the entire country Wednesday. ``GM BuyPower puts consumers in control of the car buying process. It was obvious to us this one-of-a-kind service should be made available to all consumers searching for a more convenient way to shop and buy at their own pace,'' said Ann Noel Blakney, BuyPower's national director. Several rival automaker's, including Ford Motor Co., BMW and Nissan, already quote car prices on their Web pages. ___ GM BuyPower services are available on the Internet at www.gmbuypower.com ."
"Gates was expected to introduce a project to develop specially-equipped televisions and video compact disc (VCD) players to tap into the World Wide Web during a visit to the south China city of Shenzhen on Wednesday, a Microsoft official said."
"Personal computers are still beyond the means of many Chinese households, but almost everyone has a television or VCD player,'' said the official, who declined to be identified."
"According to statistics published in state newspapers, China has around 320 million television sets and 40 million VCD players."
"The "Venus project'' on internet television would be developed in cooperation with Chinese partners and run on the Windows CE operating system, designed to take consumer electronics on-line, the official said." JAVA lost this one.
"Among the Chinese partners invited to meet Gates on Wednesday were computer makers Legend Holdings Ltd, Stone Electronic Technology Ltd, Founder (Hong Kong) Ltd and white goods manufacturer Qingdao Haier Refrigerator Co Ltd, the official said."
"Microsoft is also due to announce a ``strategic cooperation plan'' with Hong Kong Telecommunications in Hong Kong on Tuesday."
"The joint-venture service, set to be available by the end of this year, is one of the first in the world, the newspaper said."
"The South China Morning Post said the new service would allow users to rent a wide range of software from Hongkong Telecom's computer at low cost for one-time use."
Users would not need to buy software which can cost thousands of dollars and may only be used a few times. The low cost of individual rental also made piracy less economically attractive.
The alliance would help Hongkong Telecom, the territory's leading telecommunications provider, cement its domination of Hong Kong's internet service provider market -- of which it holds more than 50 percent -- and move into the still untapped realm of electronic commerce, the newspaper said.
Hongkong Telecom, a unit of Cable and Wireless Plc, has been searching for new sources of revenue after the recent deregulation of its long-distance monopoly.
Hongkong Telecom shares rose HK$0.85 to HK$14.85 in morning trading on Monday, after rising 8.9 percent to HK$14.00 last Friday on speculation of a Microsoft alliance.
It's @786. Do you know where your computer is?, March 6, 1999, Mercury News and The
"The Swatch scheme, which divides the day into 1,000 ``swatch beats'' equivalent to 1 minute and 26.4 seconds, is unabashedly commercial. The system's meridian is located, conveniently enough, over the Swatch building in Biel, Swizterland, where midnight strikes @000 beats. Swatch will begin selling a $70 watch that tells Internet time, among other things, in the United States this month. The product is already for sale in Europe."
"But the company has also made software that displays Internet time on a computer screen available free from Swatch's site on the World Wide Web. About 45,000 people downloaded it in January 1999."
BNP launches bid for Paribas, Societe Generale, Unexpected offer is worth
an estimated $37 billion, By Thomas Kamm, THE WALL STREET JOURNAL, PARIS - The merger that would form the worlds largest bank.
"Banque Nationale de Paris, seeking to thwart the planned $17 billion merger between rival French banks Societe Generale and Paribas, launched an unexpected bid late Tuesday night for both banks valued at an estimated $37 billion."
"IF SUCCESSFUL, the move would create the worlds biggest banking group, with assets of more than $1 trillion and a stock market capitalization of about 340 billion French francs ($56.4 billion), as well as a huge range of services including a dominant position in French retail banking and considerable firepower in capital markets and investment banking."
"A BNP official said Tuesday night that the bid was launched because BNP believes in a rapprochement of retail banks. He pledged that the tie-up could be realized without mass layoffs. At the same time, the official said this move should be well perceived by markets because of the cost-savings it promises."
Not smart enough, Smart cards will have to improve to earn a place in your wallet, consumer experts say, March 8, 1999,
"As many as 10 years ago, we were told a piece of plastic with a computer chip embedded in it would change our lives. It would take the place of checks and debit cards. Be handier than credit cards. And one day, it could even eliminate good old-fashioned cash."
"Instead of greenbacks, we'd buy stuff with electronic blips and never actually convert anything to currency. Not only that, but this card -- this ``smart'' card -- could even be made to know things about us: Our names, where we work, what we buy, where we travel, our medical histories, our driving records. It would let us through doors, onto planes and into computer programs."
"The short answer is you don't need one. It's pretty easy to scrawl out a check, hand over a couple of bucks, slap down a credit card. In many ways, smart cards are a solution in search of a problem."
"But banks and technology companies are pushing ahead with smart-card development, racing to plant flags in a country that doesn't yet exist. Purchases made with smart cards could total $3 billion in a few years, some experts say. Others put the longer-term potential at $10 billion or even as high as $50 billion -- if every American over 14 had a smart card with a lot of money stored on it. But depending on whose numbers you use, smart-card sales right now are either as high as $500 million -- still not a huge market -- or as low as $58 million."
"NationsBank -- now Bank of America -- First Union and Wachovia issued thousands of smart cards for the 1996 Olympics in Atlanta, where attendees used the cards to buy soda, sandwiches and other small items. Bank of America offers disposable FANCash cards for use at Ericsson Stadium, home of the Carolina Panthers of the National Football League. First Union has cards at Fort Leonard Wood in Missouri, where Army recruits get their first weeks' pay advances on the cards instead of receiving envelopes of cash as before."
"Bank of America issued smart cards to Veterans Affairs medical center employees in the Bronx, and in Tampa, Fla., to be used for hospital meals. In St. Louis, the Washington University School of Medicine is testing smart cards as portable filing systems to carry the medical histories of pregnant women."
"The audiotape never really displaced the record,'' Rosenblum said. ``It wasn't until CDs came along, which consumers thought were 10 times better. It's not just building a better mousetrap; it's building a mousetrap that's so superior that's what customers are going to want to choose.'' "
"The superior mousetrap might be something as simple as laundries whose machines take only smart cards. The Manhattan test that ended last fall did reveal that customers liked using cards that way because they seemed safer to carry to a laundry room than cash and saved people the trouble of stockpiling quarters."
"Experts say another key to smart cards or even simple, stored-value cards landing in every wallet is the elusive ``killer application'' -- the one big use that draws so many customers there's critical mass. In Europe, for example, people have to use the cards in many places to make calls from pay phones or cell phones. In the United States, smart-card use in telephones remains limited."
"Bank of America is focusing research on Internet commerce, hoping customers may want smart-card readers attached to their PCs to buy goods over the Internet. People could buy things more privately than they can with a credit card, because their credit card numbers aren't flung across cyberspace, said Bette Wasserman, BofA vice president and manager of smart-card development."
"But the cards may appeal to corporate customers first, who want them to add an extra layer of security to PC use and Internet commerce, Wasserman said. Companies such as Microsoft Corp. are homing in on access-control as an early use of smart-card technology."
Net Rumors Fry Stock Guru, Wired News Report, March 9, 1999, Reuters contributed to this report - "Here's a switch: A company is claiming that the Internet gives users too much privacy."
"Wade Cook Financial has filed a slander suit against 10 anonymous users of a Yahoo bulletin board, hoping, it says, to strike a blow against rumermongering on the Internet."
"Yahoo is not a target of the lawsuit; at least, not yet."
""These John Does are using the anonymity afforded by the Internet to damage the reputation and undermine the business of a legitimate company," said Wade Cook attorney Paul Anderson."
"Cook, a Washington state cab driver turned investment guru, has had a series of entanglements with controversy -- and the law -- over the years. His aggressive short-term stock strategies have drawn criticism from the investment community and investigations from the Securities and Exchange Commission, as well as several state agencies."
"Nonetheless, Cook's various enterprises -- including books, workshops, and an online service -- reportedly add up to more than $100 million in annual revenues."
"The suit names a user with the identity "Delusional5," who posted a message on Yahoo's Business and Finance message board in January claiming that Cook had been arrested for accepting kickbacks, Anderson said. The company denied the allegation."
"The company could file the subpoena against Yahoo as soon as this week to unmask the identities of "Delusional5" and nine other users who posted similar messages, Anderson said."
|| Home || Start The Day || Bookstore ||
|| @Work || News
|| Career Help ||
||About DFIN || Privacy Policy
||
COPYRIGHT @ 2000
For more information please Click Below to E-Mail
The Digital Financier